JBA Post Incident review - Glen Road flooding October 2019

AuthorityManx Utilities Authority
Date received2020-08-05
OutcomeSome information sent but part exempt
Outcome date2020-09-15
Case ID1408557

Summary

A request was made for the JBA Post Incident review regarding the October 2019 flooding on Glen Road, Laxey, and the authority released the final report with some information exempt. The disclosed document details the causes of the flood, including debris blockage at the MER Weir and the subsequent collapse of a highway wall.

Key Facts

  • The flood event occurred on the morning of 1 October 2019 in Laxey, affecting 62 properties.
  • 51 of the flooded properties were located on Glen Road.
  • Flood waters entered Glen Road via a gap in the highway wall created for a fish pass construction.
  • Debris buildup behind the MER Weir caused elevated river levels, leading to the collapse of the adjacent highway wall.
  • The report was commissioned by Manx Utilities and prepared by JBA Consulting, with the final version issued in August 2020.

Data Disclosed

  • 1 October 2019
  • 62 properties
  • 51 properties
  • August 2020
  • 13 January 2020
  • 29 January 2020
  • 12 August 2020
  • Purchase Order 157500
  • September 1930
  • December 2015
  • 5m
  • 100mm
  • 58g
  • 73g

Original Request

I would like a copy of the JBA Post incident review conducted after the flooding in Laxey, particularly on Glen Road on 1st October 2019. My home was one of the properties destroyed in Laxey that day.

Data Tables (40)

RevisionRef/Date Amendments Issuedto
S3-P01 (DRAFT) -13January 2020 n/a (ManxUtilities) (ManxUtilities)
S3-P02 (DRAFT) –29 January 2020 Additional internal reviewcomments and clientcomments. (ManxUtilities) (ManxUtilities)
A1-C01 (FINAL) –12 August2020 Final clientcomments. (ManxUtilities) (ManxUtilities)
Date andtime (BST) Description
1 October2019 06:00 –07:00 The model estimates flow began to emerge through ‘Gap A’ at 06:00 BST when water levels exceed the levels of Glen Road (18.31mAD02). Flows continued to flow through ‘Gap A’ throughout the peak of the event. The amount of flow entering Glen Road was exacerbated due to the presence of the excavator and building materials in the channel. The obstructions caused an approximate head loss of 0.15m. Additional analysis was undertaken to assess the impact of the excavator (Appendix E) due to the limitations of the a 1D modelling approach in representing turbulence around the obstructions. The impact of the excavator is exploredfurtherinScenario4(section5.8). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 18. The estimated maximumflooddepthsforthepropertieswas0.35m.
1 October2019 07:00 –08:30 Flows leaving the river channel via ‘Gap A’started torecede following the peak of the flood hydrograph. However, when blockage is applied to the MER Weir, water levels are projected back up the river. The moment prior to the wall collapse coincideswiththemodelledpeakflow(1.89m3/s)through‘GapA’. Overtopping of the highway wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir is estimated to occur from 07:45 BST until the collapse of the wall. A peak flow of 2.82m3/s was estimated to have occurred due to overtopping of the wall prior to collapse. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 26. The estimated maximumflooddepthsforthepropertieswas0.55m.
1 October2019 08:30 –09:00 Uponcollapseofthehighwaywall(‘GapB’)anapproximatepeakflowof13.24m3/s entered the floodplain(approximately halfthevalue oftheflowhydrographatthe same point in the event). Immediately after the wall collapse, upstream water levels were reduced by approximately 0.5m. The model estimates following the wallcollapsethewaterlevelsat‘GapA’hadreducedbelowthe level ofGlenRoad (18.31mAD02). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximumflooddepthsforthepropertieswas0.8m.
1 October2019 08:30 –11:30 Flows continued to spill from ‘Gap B’ and onto Glen Road. Flows continued to recedeuntilemergencyactiontookplace. Atthetimestepbeforeemergencyaction beganflowsleavingthechannelfrom‘GapB’hadrecededto 5.3m3/s. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximumflooddepthsforthepropertieswas0.6m.
1 October2019 08:30 –13:00 Following the emergency action creating ‘Gap C’ and introducing the road block, the model estimates a peak flow of 1.5m3/s re-enters the channel. However, the modeldemonstratesthisdidnothavethegreatestimpactonreducingwaterlevels alongGlenRoad. ThepartialremovalofdebrisfromMERWeirhadagreaterimpact as water levels quickly receded to levels below Glen Road (17.1-17.4mAD02) immediatelyupstreamoftheweir. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximumflooddepthsforthepropertieswas0.6m.
Scenario Number of flooded properties
1 34
2 19
3 33
4 0
Date Studyname Description andconclusions
2012 Flood Risk to CoastalTowns A 1D HEC-RAS model (steady state) was developed in this strategic study to assess flood risk from Laxey River and Glen Roy. Thestudyidentifiedareasatfloodriskandsomelimitations of a 1D modelling approach in Laxey, specifically, that using sectionsdidnotaccountforcomplexoverlandflowroutesinthe floodplain. The study concluded that to fully understand flood mechanisms in Laxey a more detailed model with better representationofout-of-bankflowrouteswouldberequired.
2014 Isle of Man (IoM) Surface Water FloodMap Laxey was covered by the island-wide surface water flood map. Based on the results from broadscale surface water flood modelling this identified overland flow routes within the Laxey catchment. The model was used to identify areas shown at greatest flood risk to give MU a priority list for future investigation.
2017 Laxey FloodModelling update The1DHEC-RASmodeldevelopedaspartofthe2012studywas converted to 1D-2D. The objective was to produce a single seamless model that could be used to assess not only complex overlandflowroutesinLaxey,butalsofloodriskfromallsources (fluvial, pluvial and tidal (still water)) and the interactions between the different types of flooding. Hydrological data was alignedwithbestpracticeandconsideringlocalgauged data.
Date Photographs Description
September 1930 MER Weir, GlenRoad Heavy rainstorm on the night of 17 September 1930resulted inflashflooding,exacerbatedbya severe accumulation of debris behind the weir of theLaxeyPowerStationhydroelectricplant(MER Weir). The flood caused destruction to many partsofLaxey.Thewaterturbine andpartof the steam workings were also flooded, requiring repairs which were undertaken in October and November19301. Photographic evidence shows the wall on the left bank of the river collapsed downstream of the MER Weir, and a large section of Glen Road was washedaway.
December 2015 Old Laxey Bridge post flood event (Source: ) On3December2015theIsleofManexperienced widespread flooding. The Mountain Box rain gauge recorded 69.2mm of rainfall between 10:30GMTand18:00GMT,withpeakintensities around 15:30 GMT. Over the same period, the Brandywell Corner rain gauge recorded 50.2mm ofrainfall.UsingtheFEHDDFmethod(discussed in section 4.2.2), this suggests a rainfall return period of 10 to 20 years. At 16:26 GMT, the Laxey River gauge recorded a depth of 2.14m. Immediately after the gauge malfunctioned and madenofurtherrecordings,soitislikelythetrue peak was not recorded. Anecdotal evidence from property flooding suggests the peak occurred at around 17:00 GMT. The recorded level of 2.14m isestimatedtocorrespondtoaflowof37m3/s. Flooding was caused by a combination of fluvial and surface water mechanisms. Increased flow in the Laxey River caused river bank and wall collapses,whichallowedout-of-bankflow.Debris blocked culverts and bridges. At least 39 properties were flooded. Properties on Cranleigh Road reported the highest depths of water, describing four feet of water externally and two to four feet of water within the properties. Ten residents were evacuated from their homes on Back Shore Road due to concerns about soil erosion near the cliffs, given there had been landslides elsewhere in Laxey. The Old Laxey Bridgecollapsedataround16:00GMT,causinga bustocrashintotheriver.
Date Photographs Description
January 2016 - Over a 24-hour period on 22 January, 109.8mm of rainfall was recorded at Mountain Box rain gauge. Damage to walls and embankments on 3 December 2015 which had not been repaired meant that river water was able to leave the channel. The Laxey River was reported to have overflowed in places, causing flooding. The primary school was closed2 and several roads were shut3. During this flood event, the river gaugeremainedoutofuseafteritsdisplacement during the 3 December 2015 event, therefore no levels were recorded. However, at Corrany Weir, the peak levels on 22 January 2016 were higher thanthoserecordedon3December2015.
November 2017 Surface water flooding on Minorca Hill (Source:MU) On 22 November 2017, a total of 71.8mm of rainfallwasrecordedatMountainBoxraingauge over a period of 22 hours (starting at 03:15 GMT), and 60.4mm was recorded at Brandywell Corner for the same period. Higher than normal rainfall was recorded for the 3 days prior to the event. The peak intensity was at 09:45 GMT, with a smaller secondary peak at 20:15 GMT. The river gauge recorded a peak river depth of 1.868m at 10:30 GMT, which is estimated to correspond to a flow of 26m3/s. The river level was observed to be elevated for about 4 days afterthispeak. There is less anecdotal evidence relating to this event than 3 December 2015. However, roads were closed due to surface water flooding, with GlenRoadreportedlyfloodedfrom09:00GMTto 13:00 GMT. The only reported infrastructure damagewasthecollapseofariverwallupstream oftheShoreHotelwhichwascrackedpriortothe floodevent.
Event Photographs Description
Hydrological context - On 30 September, a yellow weather warning was issued by Ronaldsway Met Office for 30 September 17:00 BST to 1 October 10:00 BST, with 20-35mm of rainfall predicted over the hills. Two rain gauges on the perimeter of the Laxey catchment recorded over 100mm from 14:00BSTon30Septemberto14:00BSTon1 October2019.
Pre-event Source:MU Prior to the event, a fish pass was under construction at the Woollen Mills Weir. In order to access the river channel with plant machinery, a 5m section of the highway wall dividing Glen Road from the river was demolished and a ramp created to access the river. The highway wall is not classed as a formal flood defence due to its construction (masonry with concrete joints and no water barrier) but it is known to provide some flood protection by means of containing flow in the channel,soisconsideredasadefactodefence. The excavator was in the channel on the night of the event and based on photographic evidence it is unclear if provision was made to fillthegap.
During Event Source:MU Source:MU Peak river levels were recorded around 06:30 BST. River levels were sufficiently elevated to overflow through the gap created for the fish pass construction. Flows travelled along Glen Roadandinundatedproperties. Debris was observed by residents and emergency response teams to collect on the MER Weir. The build-up led to increased water levels upstream thus forcing more flow out through the gap created for the fish pass construction. Water levels also exceeded the level of the wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir. Subsequently, a section of the highway wall collapsedupstreamoftheMERWeirresultingin a sudden release of water. This caused increased flooding to properties along Glen Road. Emergency action, coordinated by Silver Command, was undertaken after 11:00 BST. This included removing a section of wall downstream of the weir to allow flows to re- enter the channel and clearing debris from the MERWeir.
Event outcomes In total, 62 properties (59 residential) were flooded within the village, of which 51 were locatedonGlenRoad. Theother11weremainly isolated properties in the village with flooding attributed to surface water runoff rather than floodingdirectlyfromtheriver. On 2 October, Silver Command coordinated further removal of debris behind the MER Weir, and on 3 October the central pillars of the MER Weir were removed, and modifications made to the weir to reduce future risk from debris blockage.
Date(2019) Time(BST) Comment
Prior to 30 September Fish pass construction began –‘Gap A’ created to allow access to the riverchannel.
30September 11:00 Yellow Weather Warning issued by Ronaldsway Met Office for 30 September 17:00 to 1 October 10:00. Forecast was for 10-20mm of rainfallacrosstheisland,with20-35mmpossibleoverthehills.
30September Approx.15:00 Beginning of rainfall event, two hours earlier than forecast.
30September Approx.17:00 Excavator and building materials for fish pass construction left within riverchannel.
1October Approx.6:00 Flows exceed level of Glen Road and water flows out of ‘GapA’.
1October 06:21 Peak flood level recorded at Laxey Rivergauge.
1October Before07:00 Blockage starts to build up behind MER Weir.
1October 08:30 Amber Weather Warning issued by Ronaldsway Met Office. Expected conditionswereheavyraintocontinueforthemorningbringingafurther 15-20mm for low ground and potentially another 30-35mm over the hills.
1October Approx.08:40 Breach occurred in section of highway wall upstream of MER Weir. Overtopping of the wall was experienced prior to collapse. The surge from ‘Gap B’ inundated properties on Glen Road and evidence shows largevehiclesbeenmovedbytheforceof water.
1October Approx.09:00 Water no longer flowing through ‘GapA’.
1October 11:30-11:50 ‘GapC’createdaspartofemergencyactiontoallowwaterbackintothe channelfromGlenRoad.Consequently,thelevelofwateronGlenRoad decreased.DebrisfrombehindMERWeirbegantoberemoved.
1October 12:00-15:00 Sandbags placed on Glen Road to divert water through ‘GapC’.
1October 12:55 Incident downgraded to recoveryphase.
1October 13:00 End of rainfallevent.
2October n/a Remaining debris behind MER Weirremoved.
3October n/a Central pillars of MER Weirremoved.
Type Comments
SiteContractor The individual was a member of the team constructing the Fish Pass, which had includedcreating‘GapA’. Theyhadalsoassistedwithcreating‘GapC’andremoving the MER Weir central pillars. After the event, they were part of the team building the new wall on Glen Road to fill in ‘Gap C’. They had taken numerous videos and picturesoftheeventandprovidedthefollowingcomments:  Thecontractorsweretoldthattherewasgoingtobe50mmofrainfallovernight;  They placed a board over ‘Gap A’ behind the excavator to stop water flowing ontoGlenRoad;  They arrived on site at 07:00 BST – water was flowing through ‘Gap A’ and alongGlenRoad. Thehighestdepthsoffloodwaterswereatabout11:00inthe vicinityoftheMER Weir.  Emergency action to remove the MER Weir was delayed due to confusion in SilverCommandaboutownershipofthestructure.  After‘GapC’wascreated,thewateronGlenRoadflowedback intotheriverin afewhours,andtheroadwasdrybetween13:00and14:00BST;  As well as removing the MER Weir, 60 tonnes of gravel was removed from the riverbehindtheweirfollowingtheevent.
Cooil RoiSheltered housingmanager The managerexpressed aconcernaboutthe gap inthe wall onthe leftbank of the Laxey River. However, they indicated the water level on the right bank during previous flood events. For 2019, the water level reached a white cobble visible in the wall. This level was higher than that observed in 2015 at this location. She suggestedthatCooilRoiShelteredHousinghadnotbeenfloodedbyeitherthe2015
or 2019 flood events, and that flood risk occurs downstream of the confluence with GlenRoy.
Localresident A local resident who lives on Glen Road confirmed the timings of the different occurrences in the flood event. There was a general concern about the debris in the river prior to the floor event. A resident had undertaken several walkovers of Glen Roy catchment prior to the flood event and in the days after the flood event to identify debris sources and was convinced that the debris that collected on the MER Weir was a result of tree felling from the 2015 floods that have been left on the sides of the Glen Roy.
Date and time(BST) Photograph Description
1October 08:16 Photo 1: The gap in the wall was created prior to 30 September to allow construction ofafishpassatLaxeyWoollenMillWeir. Prior to 07:00 BST on 1 October, water was flowing through this Gap. This photo shows that flows were impeded by the excavator resultingin moreflowenteringGlenRoad. Video evidence of this mechanism is providedinthedigitalAppendixA.1. Source:FireandRescueService
1October 08:17 Photo 2: A downstream view of ‘Gap A’, further empahsising the reduction in flow caused by the excavator and subsequent raising of water levels. This photo also demonstrates the volume of water which entered Glen Road (depth approximately 0.4-0.5m). Further downstream, debris had builtupbehindtheMERWeirbutpriortowall collapse(‘GapB’). Source:FireandRescueService
1October 11:33 Photo 3: This photograph shows the position of the excavator and size of ‘Gap A’. At this time the river level had considerably reduced, so water was no longer flowing through ‘Gap A’. At this time, emergency action was yet to be taken. Source:MU
Date and time(BST) Photograph Description
1October 08:45 Photo 4: This is a downstream view of ‘Gap B’ immediatley after the wall collapsed at approximatley 08:40 BST.Itshows the level of water on Glen Road where depths exceeded 1m at properties in the vicinity of thewallcollapse. Source: Fire and RescueService
1October approx. 11:00 Photo 5: This photograph shows the blockage behind the MER Weir, and the breachofthewall(‘GapB’)upstreamofthis. Water is shown to back up behind the blockage and flow through the gap. The photograph also shows the level of water flowing down Glen Road and entering properties. The estimated peak flood levels on Glen Road occurred around this time. Further upstream, the volume of water flowing through ‘Gap A’ had reduced comparedtoearlierinthemorning. Source: MU, taken from Laxey Central FacebookGroup
1October 11:14 Photo 6: This shows a downstream view of water backing upbehind the blockage atthe MER Weir, and flowing through the gap into Glen Road. Comparison with Photo 4 shows that water levels on Glen Road had reduced slightly from 8:45 BST to 11:14 BST, using the garage door and blue car as reference points. Source:MU
Date and time(BST) Photograph Description
1October 11:36 Photo 7: Another excavator was used to create ‘Gap C’at this time.Comparisonwith Photo6showsthatwaterlevels fellbetween 11:14BSTand11:36BST.InPhoto7, rubble is visible upstream of the parked car, and the level of water on the garage door andcarislower.AsshowninPhoto3,water wasnolongerflowingthrough‘GapA’atthis time. Source:MU
1October 11:55 Photo8:After‘GapC’wascreated,someof thedebriswasclearedbehind theMERWeir. Water can be seen flowing through ‘Gap C’ from Glen Road back into the Laxey River. Water was still flowing through ‘Gap B’ (on therightofthephotograph),butwaterlevels onGlenRoadhadfallen. Source:MU
Date and time(BST) Photograph Description
2October 17:00 Photo 10: The day after the flood event (2 October), all debris was cleared from behind the MER Weir and gravel extraction began. This occurred after the flood event to allow flow conditions to subside for safe access, and because Silver Command had to decide if the benefits outweighed the risk of passing debris downstream to Swales Bridge. Source:MU
3October 14:29 Photo 11: Two days after the flood event (3 October), the central pier of the MER Weir was removed and parts of the weir crest werelowered. Source:MU
Date Grade Comments/recommendations and photographs made at the time of theinspection
20November 2014 Weir: 4 –Poor Remedial repairs to central part of the weir required.
18 May2016 Control Gates Central Pier: 4- Poor Control Gates Frame: 5 –Very Poor Scour pool (Approx. 1.6m deep) developing at the downstream toe of the structure. Repairs should be undertaken, or removal of the structureshouldbeconsidered.
16 July2019 N/a Structuredeemedasahistoricalassetandnolongerfulfilsitsoriginal function. Consider removal of the remaining structure from the channeltoavoidconveyanceissuesandimproveflow conditions. Weir needs remedial work and the whole structure requires review andeitherrepairingorremoving.Urgencyclassedas routine.
10October 2019 N/a Structure has now been removed. Further work required to improve the condition of other aspects of theweir.
Grade Comments/recommendations and photographs made at the time of the inspection
3 -Fair Lots of vegetation growing through the wall. Some mortar loss, but overall in fair condition. Some sections of scour and undermining thewall.
4 -Poor Scour and undermining should be repaired. Missing blocks should be replaced. Monitor and maintain vegetation in channel side and exposed face.
Descriptor Definition Value
Area Catchment drainage area derived using an Integrated Hydrology Digital Terrain Model (IHDTM) developed at UKCEH Wallingford. 25km2
BFIHOST Base Flow Index derived using the UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST)classification. 0.36
SAAR Standard Average Annual Rainfall (SAAR) for the period 1961- 1990 /1941-1970. 1625mm/ 1394mm
FARL Index of flood attenuation attributable to reservoirs and lakes. 0.992
DPLBAR(km) Mean of distances between each node (on regular 50 metre grid) and the catchment outlet (km). Characterises catchment size andconfiguration. 4.49
DPSBAR(m/km) Mean of all the inter-nodal slopes for the catchment (m/km). Characterises the overallsteepness. 202.8
Raingauge Total rainfall(mm)
CorranyIntake 89.4
MountainBox 96.2
BrandywellCorner 111.6
Duration (hours) CorranyIntake MountainBox BrandywellCorner
Rainfall (mm) Return Period (years) Rainfall (mm) Return Period (years) Rainfall (mm) Return Period (years)
1 13.6 Less than2 12.2 Less than2 6.4 Less than2
2 25.2 2 to5 21.2 Less than2 10.8 Less than2
3 34.6 2 to5 26 Less than2 15.2 Less than2
6 57 5 to10 45.8 2 to5 26.6 Less than2
12 83.6 5 to10 87.8 5 to10 45.8 Less than2
24 100.8 5 to10 108.2 5 to10 60.4 Less than2
Event Observed peak depth (m) Estimatedflow (m3/s) Correspondingreturn period (years)
December 2015 2.14* 37 10 to20
November2017 1.88 26 2 to5
October2019 2.26 42 10 to20
Totalflow volume (m³) Baseflow volume (m³) VF(m³) Area of catchment (m²) Meantotal rainfall (m²) VR(m³) Percentage runoff(%)
1,183,852 378,616 805,236 22,810,000 0.0898 2,048,338 39.31
Date andTime Tide Depth(mAD02)
29/09/201905:41 Low -3.07
29/09/201911:21 High 3.82
29/09/201917:55 Low -3.08
29/09/201923:42 High 4.02
30/09/201906:20 Low -3.39
30/09/201912:08 High 3.82
30/09/201918:37 Low -2.97
01/10/201900:24 High 4.17
01/10/201907:01 Low -3.20
01/10/201912:45 High 3.68
01/10/201919:13 Low -3.23
02/10/201901:10 High 3.61
02/10/201907:44 Low -3.14
19 00:00 30/09/20 19 00:00 01/10/20 19 00:00 02/10/20
Date andtime (BST) Associated figures Description
1 October2019 06:00 –07:00 Figure 5-3(Flood Extent) Figure 5-4(Long section) The model estimates flow began to emerge through ‘Gap A’ at 06:00 BST when water levels exceed the levels of Glen Road (18.31mAD02). Flows continued to flow through ‘Gap A’ throughout the peak of the event. The amount of flow entering GlenRoadwasexacerbatedduetothepresenceoftheexcavator and building materials in the channel. The obstructions caused an approximate head loss of 0.15m. Additional analysis was undertaken to assess the impact of the excavator (Appendix E) due to the limitations of the a 1D modelling approach in representing turbulence around the obstructions. The impact of theexcavatoris exploredfurtherin Scenario4(section 5.8). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 18. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.35m.
1 October2019 07:00 –08:30 Figure 5-5(Flood Extent) Figure 5-6(Long section) Flows leaving the river channel via ‘Gap A’ started to recede following the peak of the flood hydrograph. However, when blockage is applied to the MER Weir, water levels are projected back up the river. The moment prior to the wall collapse coincides with the modelled peak flow (1.89m3/s) through ‘Gap A’. Overtopping of the highway wall immediately upstream of the MERWeirisestimatedtooccurfrom07:45BSTuntilthecollapse of the wall. A peak flow of 2.82m3/s was estimated to have occurredduetoovertoppingofthewallpriortocollapse. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 26. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.54m.
1 October2019 08:30 –09:00 Figure 5-7(Flood Extent) Figure 5-8(Long section) Uponcollapseofthehighwaywall(‘GapB’)anapproximatepeak flowof13.24m3/senteredthefloodplain(approximatelyhalfthe value of the flow hydrograph at the same point in the event). Immediately afterthe wallcollapse, upstreamwater levelswere reduced by approximately 0.5m. The model estimates following the wall collapse the water levels at ‘Gap A’ had reduced below thelevelofGlenRoad(18.31mAD02). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.79m.
1 October2019 08:30 –11:30 n/a Flowscontinuedtospillfrom‘Gap B’and onto GlenRoad.Flows continued to recede until emergency action took place. At the timestep before emergency action began flows leaving the channelfrom‘GapB’hadrecededto5.3m3/s. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.6m.
Date(2019) Time(BST) Comment
Prior to 30September Fish pass construction began –‘Gap A’ created to allow access to the river channel. ‘Gap A’ was located opposite the southern limit of the Woollen Mills building (243,454mE484,329mN)
30September 11:00 Yellow Weather Warning issued by Ronaldsway Met Office for 30 September 17:00 BST to 1 October 10:00 BST. Expected conditions were 10-20mm of rainfall across the island, with 20- 35mm possible over thehills.
30September Approx.15:00 Beginning of rainfall event.
30September Approx.17:00 Excavator and building materials for fish pass construction left within river channel overnight at the location of ‘GapA’.
1October Approx.06:00 Flows exceed level of Glen Road and flow out of ‘GapA’.
1October 06:21 Peak flood level recorded at Laxey River gauge (243,688.3mE, 484,029.3mN;11.70mAD02).
1October Approx.07:00 Debris blockage starts to build up behind the MER Weir.
1October 08:30 Amber Weather Warning issued by Ronaldsway Met Office. Expected conditions were heavy rain to continue for the morning bringing a further 15-20mm for low ground and potentially another 30-35mm over thehills.
1October Approx.08:40 Breach occurred in section of highway wall upstream of the MER Weir on left bank. Overtopping of the highway wall was experienced prior to collapse. The surge of water through ‘Gap B’ inundated properties along Glen Road and was even seen to move large vehicles (fireengine).
1October Approx.09:00 Water no longer flowing through ‘GapA’.
1October 11:30-11:50 ‘Gap C’ created as part of emergency action to allow water back into the channel from Glen Road. Consequently, the level of water on Glen Road decreased. Debris from behind MER Weir began to beremoved.
1October 12:00-15:00 Sandbags placed on Glen Road to divert water through ‘Gap C’.
1October 12:55 Incident downgraded to recoveryphase.
1October 13:00 End of rainfall event.
2October n/a Remaining debris behind MER Weir removed.
3October n/a MER Weirremoved.
Date andtime (BST) Description
1 October2019 06:00 –07:00 Themodelestimatesflowbegantoemergethrough‘GapA’at06:00BSTwhenwater levels exceed the levels of Glen Road (18.31mAD02). Flows continued to flow through ‘Gap A’throughoutthe peak of the event.The amount of flowentering Glen Roadwas exacerbatedduetothepresenceoftheexcavatorandbuildingmaterialsin the channel.The obstructions caused an approximate head loss of 0.15m. Additional analysis was undertaken to assess the impact of the excavator (Appendix E) due to the limitations of the a 1D modelling approach in representing turbulence around the obstructions. The impact of the excavator is explored further in Scenario 4 (section 5.8). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 18. The estimated maximum flood depthsforthepropertieswas0.35m.
1 October2019 07:00 –08:30 Flows leavingtheriverchannelvia‘Gap A’startedtorecedefollowing thepeakofthe flood hydrograph. However, when blockage is applied to the MER Weir, water levels are projected back up the river. The moment prior to the wall collapse coincides with themodelledpeakflow(1.89m3/s)through‘GapA’. Overtopping of the highway wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir is estimated to occur from 07:45 BST until the collapse of the wall. A peak flow of 2.82m3/s was estimatedtohaveoccurredduetoovertoppingofthewallpriorto collapse. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 26. The estimated maximum flood depthsforthepropertieswas0.54m.
1 October2019 08:30 –09:00 Upon collapse of the highway wall (‘Gap B’) an approximate peak flow of 13.24m3/s entered the floodplain (approximately half the value of the flow hydrograph at the same point in the event). Immediately after the wall collapse, upstream water levels werereducedbyapproximately0.5m. Themodelestimatesfollowingthewallcollapse thewaterlevelsat‘GapA’hadreducedbelowthelevelofGlenRoad (18.31mAD02). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depthsforthepropertieswas0.79m.
1 October2019 08:30 –11:30 Flows continued to spill from ‘Gap B’ and onto Glen Road. Flows continued to recede until emergency action took place. At the timestep before emergency action began flowsleavingthechannelfrom‘GapB’hadrecededto 5.3m3/s. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depthsforthepropertieswas0.6m.
1 October2019 08:30 –13:00 Following the emergency action creating ‘Gap C’ and introducing the road block, the model estimates a peak flow of 1.5m3/s re-enters the channel. However, the model demonstrates this did not have the greatest impact on reducing water levels along GlenRoad. ThepartialremovalofdebrisfromMERWeirhadagreaterimpactaswater levels quickly receded to levels below Glen Road (17.1-17.4mAD02) immediately upstreamoftheweir. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depthsforthepropertieswas0.6m.
Scenario Number of flooded properties
1 34
2 19
3 33
4 0
Duration (hours) 2-year rainfall (mm) 5-year rainfall (mm) 10- year rainfall (mm) 20- year rainfall (mm) 30- year rainfall (mm) 50- year rainfall (mm) 75- year rainfall (mm) 100- year rainfall (mm)
1 13.62 19.52 24.15 29.58 33.21 38.24 42.57 45.79
2 20.74 28.34 34.57 41.68 46.44 52.71 57.88 61.63
3 26.26 35.23 42.68 51.23 56.66 63.76 69.51 73.62
6 38.22 50.55 61.01 72.49 79.23 87.64 94.31 99.03
12 52.77 70.11 84.53 98.57 106.58 116.33 123.92 129.21
24 68.76 92.49 110.42 126.9 136.01 147.02 155.49 161.37
Duration (hours) 2-year rainfall (mm) 5-year rainfall (mm) 10- year rainfall (mm) 20- year rainfall (mm) 30- year rainfall (mm) 50- year rainfall (mm) 75- year rainfall (mm) 100- year rainfall (mm)
1 13.93 20 24.66 30.19 33.83 39.01 43.44 46.71
2 21.53 29.29 35.57 42.88 47.64 54.14 59.49 63.34
3 27.42 36.58 44.1 52.89 58.44 65.78 71.7 75.91
6 40.3 52.8 63.49 75.22 82.19 91.03 97.9 102.71
12 56.05 73.59 88.31 103.05 111.42 121.7 129.59 135.08
24 73.04 97.29 116.09 133.46 142.95 154.63 163.51 169.63
Duration (hours) 2-year rainfall (mm) 5-year rainfall (mm) 10- year rainfall (mm) 20- year rainfall (mm) 30- year rainfall (mm) 50- year rainfall (mm) 75- year rainfall (mm) 100- year rainfall (mm)
1 13.8 19.69 24.32 29.85 33.55 38.73 43.15 46.41
2 21.3 28.8 34.92 42.38 47.35 53.8 59.01 62.75
3 27 35.83 43.12 51.88 57.51 64.72 70.52 74.65
6 39.27 51.1 61.36 72.75 79.56 88.14 94.84 99.56
12 53.83 70.21 84.1 98.23 106.23 116.06 123.7 129.05
24 69.53 92.42 109.79 125.87 134.7 145.82 154.39 160.33
Duration (hours) 2-year rainfall (mm) 5-year rainfall (mm) 10- year rainfall (mm) 20- year rainfall (mm) 30- year rainfall (mm) 50- year rainfall (mm) 75- year rainfall (mm) 100- year rainfall (mm)
1 12.1 17.29 21.49 26.42 29.71 34.27 38.21 41.13
2 18.67 25.52 31.18 37.88 42.23 47.99 52.7 56.1
3 23.74 31.88 38.66 46.62 51.68 58.15 63.39 67.14
6 34.65 45.64 55.22 65.65 71.81 79.53 85.65 89.97
12 47.49 62.85 75.72 88.5 95.74 104.59 111.5 116.34
24 61.55 82.32 98.21 112.92 121.09 131.06 138.75 144.12
Date Description
February1823 Very heavy rain. Worst floods for 20 years. Recent addition to Old Laxey Bridge washed away.
August1836 Flooded river flows into Laxey Mine and five minersdrowned.
October1841 Considerable floods. Lower village completely inundated. Paper mill weir and embankment damaged. Livestock swept out to sea. 200 yards of walls washedaway.
December1841 Rivers inflood.
November1860 Heavy rains and severe floods. Hundreds of tons of mines waste swept out to sea. Laxey harbour scoured and remains of ancient pieruncovered.
July 1872 Island wide flooding. Glen Roy river in flood destroys Glen Roy Mine damhead.
June1876 Call for bridge at Creers Mill (now Salmon Centre). Complaint by farmers that river frequently in flood and cattle cannot be herded across toAgneash.
September1883 Great flood. Glen Roy river swollen to height not seen in previous 5 to 20 years. Undermined wall outside Woollen Mills. Wall collapsed for 30 feet allowing water onto Glen Road. Part of Mine tramway washed away. Temporary measures put in place to repair breach.
October1883 Terrific rainfall like of which not seen in years. Landslide to rear of Snaefell View (Greens Garage). 100 tons of earthslipped.
November1890 Laxey River overflowed its bank in severalplaces.
October1891 Heavy Floods. Great body of water rushing down Laxey River damaging new bridge at Creers Mill and the bridge at OldLaxey.
October1896 Floods. River swollen to such extent that fears it would flow into the mine. Miners brought to the surface as a precaution. Severe damage at GarwickGlen.
January1899 Severe storms. Several houses in Glen flooded and two landslides. Old inhabitants say it was the severest storm they canremember.
November1901 Severest storm for many years past. River overflowed its banks at the MER Weir flooding several houses in the vicinity. MER turbine race damaged.
Beginning of October1909 The biggest flood for many years. River reached an abnormal height. MER boiler room on Glen Road flooded. Considerable damage to Laxey harbour at low water by swollenriver.
Middle of October1909 Heavy rains. Many houses in Glen Road flooded. House at South Cape had water running in the back and out thefront.
October1918 Laxey Village Commissioners meeting. Clerk instructed to draw the attention of the Highway Board to the recent flooding on GlenRoad.
September1922 Considerable damage to Laxey harbour by floods due to heavy rain. Newly built wall and weir designed to keep river from harbour sweptaway.
January1928 Downpour resembling a tropical rainstorm. Worst floods in living memory. Several houses evacuated. Men working up to their waists in water while clearing drains. Bridge
across Laxey River at Creers Mill (now the Salmon Centre and Corn Mill) washed away. Bridge on road to Cronk e Chule (now Laxey Wheel car park) washed away. River overflowing onto road at Woollen Mills. Houses and gardens on Glen Road flooded and several outbuildings swept away. Bridge across river to MER power house washed away. Landslide on Church Hill. Great damage to Snaefell Mountain Railway. Water flowed from line flooding several houses on Dumbells Terrace.
September1930 Worst floods in living memory causes flooding and damage on GlenRoad.
December1930 More floods. River burst its bank on Glen Road, through gap not repaired from September 1930 flood, and flooded severalhouses.
February1931 Severe rain fall. Temporary repairs on Glen Road wall after September flood held back the swollenriver.
November1931 Severe rain fall. Laxey River burst through temporary repair and flooded cottage of Mrs Lewin who suffered much damage in 1930. Rain was spread over a longer period of time than September 1930, but river was up to the top of the arches at Old Laxey Bridge in a way never before seen by the older inhabitants. Ground water logged and water coming off fields flooded a number of houses including one at the foot of MinorcaHill.
August1932 Severe flooding of river but Laxey escaped with littledamage.
November1940 Fairy Cottage river in flood flows onto main road and Old Laxey Hill causing flooding to several houses. Landslide on cliff onto end property.
April1947 Bridge washed away at Agneash due to flood, washing away water supply to thehamlet.
January1948 Floodwater causes wall on Captains Hill tocollapse.
October1949 Heaviest rainfall for seven years. Storm water swept down the glen. People had to barricade themselves into theirhouses.

Full Response Text

LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 i Laxey October 2019
Flood Incident Review Final Report August 2020 www.jbaconsulting.com Manx Utilities
PO BOX 177
DOUGLAS Isle of Man
IM99 1PS Gavin Hodson 1 Broughton Park Old Lane North
Broughton
Skipton North Yorkshire
BD23 3FD Revision History LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 1 Revision Ref/Date Amendments Issued to S3-P01 (DRAFT) - 13 January
2020 n/a (Manx Utilities) (Manx Utilities) S3-P02 (DRAFT) – 29 January
2020 Additional internal review comments
and client comments. (Manx Utilities) (Manx Utilities) A1-C01 (FINAL) – 12 August 2020 Final client comments. (Manx Utilities) (Manx Utilities) Contract This report describes work commissioned by , on behalf of Manx Utilities, by Purchase Order 157500. Manx Utilities’ representatives for the contract were and . Gavin Hodson and Robert Beresford of JBA Consulting carried out this work. Prepared by .................................. Robert Beresford BA (Cantab) Assistant Analyst .................................................... Gavin Hodson FdSc BSc Senior Analyst Reviewed by .................................. Charles Mbigha BSc MSc PhD CEng MICE
MCIWEM C.WEM Technical Director .................................................... Jeremy Benn FREng MA MSc CEng CWEM FICE
FCIWEM MASCE MIEI Executive Chair Purpose This document has been prepared as a Final Report for Manx Utilities. JBA Consulting accepts no responsibility or liability for any use that is made of this document other than by the Client for the purposes for which it was originally commissioned and prepared. JBA Consulting has no liability regarding the use of this report except to Manx Utilities. Copyright © Jeremy Benn Associates Limited 2020. Carbon Footprint A printed copy of the main text in this document will result in a carbon footprint of 58g if 100% post-consumer recycled paper is used and 73g if primary-source paper is used. These figures assume the report is printed in black and white on A4 paper and in duplex. JBA is aiming to reduce its per capita carbon emissions. LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 2 Executive summary Overview Manx Utilities commissioned JBA to conduct a flood incident review following a flood event in the village of Laxey. The event occurred on the morning of 1 October 2019 when 62 properties experienced internal flooding. The area most affected was Glen Road, where 51 of the 62 flooded properties are located. This report provides an overview of the information collated to build an accurate timeline of events and assesses the key mechanisms that influenced flooding along the Laxey River. October 2019 flood event To create an accurate picture of the event a timeline was constructed from information gathered. Key elements of the flood event included:  Flood waters entering Glen Road via the gap created in the highway wall to
allow access for the construction of a fish pass;  Debris build up behind the MER Weir structure which resulted in elevated river
levels upstream of the Weir;  Overtopping of highway wall adjacent to Glen Road as a result of elevated
upstream levels;  Collapse of highway wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir resulting in
sudden inundation of Glen Road;  Emergency action taken after the onset of flooding, including debris removal
and demolition of additional walled sections on the left bank. Structure and blockage assessment Flood events in Laxey have been exacerbated due to blockage of differing structures
(bridges or weirs) within the catchment:  September 1930 – Blockage occurred at MER Weir causing flooding along Glen Road.  December 2015 – Blockages occurred at Swales Bridge and Laxey Bridge raising water levels immediately upstream, of the structures and exacerbating flood risk to properties. Debris consisted of large woody debris (>5m in length).  October 2019 - Blockage occurred at the MER Weir, resulting in elevated water levels upstream of the structure. This increased the lateral loading on the adjacent highway wall and led to its collapse. The MER Weir could be considered unique due to its makeup with the central columns that formally housed sluice gates. There are several other weirs along the Glen Roy and Laxey River. During the 1 October event there were no signs of debris build up at the other weirs. Therefore, the layout of the MER Weir could be considered more favourable in terms of trapping floating debris than the other weirs. However, previous flood events have shown blockage can occur at varying locations in the catchment i.e. Swales Bridge in 2015 and not restricted to the MER Weir. A highway wall runs along the left bank of the Laxey River from the Woollen Mills to the MER Weir. The highway wall is not classed as a formal flood defence due to its construction (masonry with concrete joints and no water barrier) but it is known to provide some flood protection by means of containing flow in the channel, so is considered as a de facto defence. LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 3 Hydrometric data Rainfall data is recorded across several rain gauges located around the perimeter of the Laxey catchment. Two rain gauges recorded over 100mm of rainfall within a 24-hour period during the 1 October 2019 event. It is estimated that the rainfall return period at these rain gauges was between 5-10-years. Antecedent conditions were likely a significant contribution to the flood event. At the three rain gauges in the vicinity of the catchment, 89.4mm-111.6mm was recorded in the week leading up to the event. The catchment would have been saturated and runoff generation would have been high. The river gauge recorded a peak depth of 2.26m. This level is the highest recorded by the gauge record since it was installed in 2007. However, there are significant periods of data missing from the record due to a gauge malfunction in December 2015. There is the possibility that the true peak of two events in this period were not captured. An initial estimate of the return period of the flood event at the Laxey gauge was undertaken by converting the water level at the gauge to flow using a new rating curve. This was developed based on new survey which was acquired to update the model at the gauge site. Using the ReFH method, the estimated event peak flow of 42m3/s at the gauge corresponds to a return period between 10 and 20 years. However, this method is known to overestimate flows on the island based on previous studies. Hydraulic modelling Computer modelling was undertaken to assess the impact of the flooding mechanisms that operated during the October 2019 event, namely:  Scenario 1 – Event scenario including all mechanisms mentioned in the event
timeline.  Scenario 2 – ‘Gap A’ open and blocked in regard to the excavator. No blockage
or wall collapse at the MER Weir was considered.  Scenario 3 – Blockage of the MER Weir and collapse of the wall immediately
upstream, ‘Gap A’ closed.  Scenario 4 – Structures free from blockage and highway wall intact. Table 6-2 describes how mechanisms operated during the event. For reference, the audit of flooded properties undertaken by MU suggests that for the area included in the hydraulic model, in total 34 residential properties were flooded. Table ES-1: Event walkthrough LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 4 Date and time
(BST) Description 1 October 2019 06:00 – 07:00 The model estimates flow began to emerge through ‘Gap A’ at 06:00 BST when water levels exceed the levels of Glen Road (18.31mAD02). Flows continued to flow through ‘Gap A’ throughout the peak of the event. The amount of flow entering Glen Road was exacerbated due to the presence of the excavator and building materials in the channel. The obstructions caused an approximate head loss of 0.15m. Additional analysis was undertaken to assess the impact of the excavator (Appendix E) due to the limitations of the a 1D modelling approach in representing turbulence around the obstructions. The impact of the excavator is explored further in Scenario 4 (section 5.8). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 18. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.35m. 1 October 2019 07:00 – 08:30 Flows leaving the river channel via ‘Gap A’ started to recede following the peak of the flood hydrograph. However, when blockage is applied to the MER Weir, water levels are projected back up the river. The moment prior to the wall collapse coincides with the modelled peak flow (1.89m3/s) through ‘Gap A’. Overtopping of the highway wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir is estimated to occur from 07:45 BST until the collapse of the wall. A peak flow of 2.82m3/s was estimated to have occurred due to overtopping of the wall prior to collapse. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 26. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.55m. 1 October 2019 08:30 – 09:00 Upon collapse of the highway wall (‘Gap B’) an approximate peak flow of 13.24m3/s entered the floodplain (approximately half the value of the flow hydrograph at the same point in the event). Immediately after the wall collapse, upstream water levels were reduced by approximately 0.5m. The model estimates following the wall collapse the water levels at ‘Gap A’ had reduced below the level of Glen Road (18.31mAD02). Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.8m. 1 October 2019 08:30 – 11:30 Flows continued to spill from ‘Gap B’ and onto Glen Road. Flows continued to recede until emergency action took place. At the timestep before emergency action began flows leaving the channel from ‘Gap B’ had receded to 5.3m3/s. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.6m. 1 October 2019 08:30 – 13:00 Following the emergency action creating ‘Gap C’ and introducing the road block, the model estimates a peak flow of 1.5m3/s re-enters the channel. However, the model demonstrates this did not have the greatest impact on reducing water levels along Glen Road. The partial removal of debris from MER Weir had a greater impact as water levels quickly receded to levels below Glen Road (17.1-17.4mAD02) immediately upstream of the weir. Flooded properties at this stage of the event = 33. The estimated maximum flood depths for the properties was 0.6m. LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 5 The additional scenarios (2, 3 and 4) were developed to examine how the flooding mechanisms would have manifested in isolation;  Scenario 2 (‘Gap A’ open, no blockage or wall collapse at the MER Weir) showed that the flood envelope would have been significantly reduced as during the Event scenario (Scenario 1), flows leaving the channel via ‘Gap A’ were influenced by the backwater effect caused by blockage at the MER Weir.  Scenario 3 (MER Weir blockage and wall collapse) demonstrates that the blockage and subsequent collapse of the wall has the greatest influence on the flood event. Levels within the channel exceeded those associated with the Event scenario (Scenario 1) as no flow could leave the channel via ‘Gap A’.  Scenario 4 (structures free from blockage and highway wall intact) shows that with the removal of ‘Gap A’ and no blockage, flows would have been contained within the river channel. The model shows that flood levels would have exceeded the level of Glen Road and were only kept in-bank by the wall (de facto defence) along the left bank of the channel. However, in reality it seems very unlikely that no debris blockage at the MER Weir would have occurred. Total property counts for each of the scenarios were generated in a geographical information (GIS) environment. Table ES-2 shows the impact on flooded properties along Glen Road. Table ES-2: Flooded properties in each scenario LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 6 Scenario Number of flooded properties 1 34 2 19 3 33 4 0 Conclusions From all the evidence collated as part of this study and hydraulic modelling, the following
conclusions can be drawn:  The debris build up and subsequent collapse of the wall immediately upstream of the MER Weir had the greatest impact in terms of flood inundation to properties on Glen Road.  Flooding was further exacerbated by the presence of ‘Gap A’ and the channel restriction caused by the excavator and building materials in the channel. The reduction in flow area caused an increase in water levels upstream which then drove flow through ‘Gap A’ onto Glen Road.  The MER Weir is deemed at high risk from blockage due to the width of the central column and its ability to trap large woody debris.  Prior to the flood event, Manx Utilities planned to commission a flood alleviation scheme for the Laxey catchment to take a holistic approach to reducing flood risk. As part of this study, an assessment of the MER Weir was planned to ascertain if removal of the structure would have a detrimental effect on downstream receptors or purely move blockage risk further downstream (i.e. Swales Bridge). Similarly, the delay in removing the MER Weir during the flood event was to allow flow conditions to subside for safe access and to decide if the benefits outweighed the risk of passing debris downstream.  The wall along Glen Road is not classed as a formal defence due to its construction. Therefore, the wall was not designed or constructed to withstand the lateral loading from high river water levels experienced during the event. Contents LAX003-JBAU-00-00-RP-Z-0001-Project_Report-A1-C01 7 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Study brief 1 1.2 Report structure 1 1.3 Location and catchment characteristics 1 1.4 Previous studies 3 1.5 Future studies 3 1.6 Flood history 3 1.7 1 October 2019 Event overview 6 2 Event information and data collection 8 2.1 Data sources 8 2.2 Event timeline 8 2.3 Eyewitness comments 9 2.4 Documented photographs 10 2.5 Inundated properties 14 3 Structure assessment 15 3.1 Overview 15 3.2 MER Weir 15 3.2.1 Overview 15 3.2.2 Topographic survey 15 3.2.3 Qualitative blockage assessment 16 3.3 T98 Asset inspections 17 4 Hydrometric data analysis 19 4.1 Catchment description 19 4.2 Rainfall information 19 4.2.1 Antecedent conditions 23 4.2.2 Rainfall return period estimation 24 4.3 River level 25 4.3.1 Return period estimation 26 4.3.2 Rating Curve 26 4.4 Assessment of percentage runoff 27 4.5 Tide times 28 5 Hydraulic Modelling 30 5.1 Hydraulic model update 30 5.2 Scenario overview 30 5.3 Hydraulic model deliverables 31 5.4 Event hydrology 31 5.5 Scenario 1 - Event 33 5.5.1 Event scenario – Summary 39 5.6 Scenario 2 – Gap A only 40 5.7 Scenario 3 – MER Blockage and wall collapse 41 5.8 Scenario 4 – Structures free from blockage and highway wall intact 42 6 Summary and conclusions 43 6.1 Event summary 43 6.2 Structure assessment 44 6.3 Hydrometric data 44 6.4 Hydraulic modelling 44 6.5 Conclusions

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