CO MEMO to Planning Inspector AP25/0003

Summary

The request sought drafts, circulation details, and meeting records regarding a Cabinet Office memo on housing need for Planning Appeal AP25/0003. The authority partially upheld the request by disclosing a detailed summary update on residential approval data, land supply, and housing projections from 2011 to 2025.

Key Facts

• The response provides housing approval statistics between 01/07/2011 and 01/01/2025 to inform the determination of application 24/00713/A.
• The Strategic Plan 2016 set a total housing need of 5,100 units for the Island across the 2011-2026 period.
• The overall take-up rate for planning approvals granted between 2011 and 2025 is 57%, with an 18% lapse rate.
• There is currently 197.7 hectares of available development land, including 70.91 hectares in Strategic Reserve.
• Projected conversions and windfalls for the period up to 2026 are estimated at 47 and 6 units respectively for the whole Island.

Data Disclosed

• 01/07/2011
• 01/01/2025
• 27/02/2025
• 2025-08-27
• 2025-12-22
• 5,100
• 770
• 1,120
• 2,440
• 4298
• 2459
• 18%
• 197.7 ha
• 70.91 ha
• 47
• 6
• 24/00713/A
• AP25/0003

Original Request

A MEMO dated 27/02/2025 was submitted by the Cabinet Office to planning Appeal AP25/0003 - FAO the Planning Inspector claiming to represent up to date data on housing need and citing it was the Cabinet Office opinion based on data that the Appeal to release this site be refused. a) please provide any drafts and circulation or approval responses of a draft MEMO prior to 27/02/2025. b) Please provide any circulation details to the draft or of the MEMO to date (27/08/2025) by CO officers or members. c) under - Assessment in respect of the Appeal site (page 5) - it is stated - CABO has committed to seek the views of Tynwald if it proposed to release any SR sites. Please provide details of the date this decision was taken and any documentation relating to meetings where this CO commitment was discussed and approved.

Data Tables (21)

Full Response Text

Residential need in relation to Planning Application 24/00713/A 1.0 Introduction 1.1 This summary update analyses housing approval between 01/07/2011 and 01/01/25. This is to inform how approval data has changed since RLAS 17 which covered up until 02/04/2024 to assist DEFA in the determination of application 24/00713/A. 1.2 The data for this report was sourced from the planning approval statistics on the planning application database. Exclusions apply to individual replacement dwellings, and Approval in Principle applications. For the purpose of the review applications which have had initial approval but which are not yet ‘final’ are included. These currently have appeals in progress and are shown in Appendix 1. The housing approval figures are net totals, with deductions for existing residential units (such as through conversions from residential to employment use or demolitions) already accounted for. 2.0 Residential Approval Data ‘2011 to 2025’
2.1 Housing Policy 3 of the Isle of Man Strategic Plan 2016 sets out the housing needs for the Island and each of the four Areas. The Strategic Plan 2016 covers the Plan period 2011 to 2026. The distribution of these figures is as follows:

Strategic Plan 2016 Area
Number North
770 South
1,120 East

2,440 West
770 All Island 5,100

2.2 Take-up rates of approvals (2011-2025) 2.2.2 The take-up rates of Planning Approvals granted between 1st July 2011 and 1st January 2025 by Area, are as follows (see Appendix 2):

Area Units that could have been developed Units either completed or under construction Units with approval but not developed (incl. lapsed) Units not taken up or which have lapsed North 1033 465 568 174 South 1144 937 207 174 East 1501 560 941 330 West 620 497 123 86 Total 4298 2459 1839 764 % 100 57 43 18

2.2.3 The Island lapse rate (18%) has been used to estimate the number of units that are likely taken up from applications which have not yet started. Therefore of the 1,075 remaining approvals which have not yet started it is assumed that 881 of those units will be taken up. The expected take up by area of units with approval which have not yet started are as follows:

Area Dwellings approved but not started Net- assumed dwellings started North 394 323 South 33 27 East 611 501 West 37 30 Total 1075 881

2.3.3 Table 10 in RLAS 17 shows a projection for conversions and windfalls from 2024-2026. This is based on a mean average of conversion figures from previous months divided by the remaining number of months in the plan period. Please note that this does not include projected conversions to or from guesthouses in Douglas. The updated projected conversions and windfalls up to 2026 based on data up to 01/01/2025, are as follows: Area
Projected Conversions Projected Windfalls North

8 3 South

6 2 East

29 1 West

4 0 All Island

47 6

3.0 Land Supply
3.1
There is currently 197.7 ha of available development land for development, excluding those applications set out in appendix 1 but including the 70.91ha is in Strategic Reserve of which this application relates to. Sites to which these figures relate to are set out in Appendix 3 and Appendix 4. 3.2 For the purposes of making an assessment of need, the Strategic Reserves have been separated out from the sites available for immediate development in the below table.
Type Area ha Residential Yield Extant Development Sites without Valid approval excluding NW and SRs 72.84 764 Development Sites APNW 121.67 880 Sub Total 194.51 1664 Strategic Reserves 70.91 773 Total 265.42 2,417

4.0 Objective Assessment of Housing Need (OAHN) 4.1
It is accepted that the Area Plan for the East will last beyond the plan period or until it is otherwise replaced. To that affect, future housing beyond the plan period and the need for this strategic reserve should be considered in reference to the OAHN. Indeed as part of the recent Area Plan for the North and West Inquiry, the Inspector Mr Brian Sims noted that “the OAHN is accepted as a major component of the evidence base to the current IMSPR. I therefore consider that it is the OAHN predictions which must guide my interpretation as to the general conformity of the APNW with the IMSP16”.

4.2 The OAHN took direction from ‘Our Island Plan’ (OIP) and the ambitions it set out in grow the economically active population. The assessment sets out an appropriate housing requirement to enable 5000 additional jobs filled by 2036 and will inform the Strategic Plan Review in due course.

4.3 The accounting period for the OAHN runs from 2021-2041, requiring some 9,900 homes upon its conclusion. As the OIP only requires the infrastructure to accommodate an island population of 100,000 people, this assessment will only look to the need up to 2036 which corresponds with the population required for the additional 5000 jobs. To meet this objective there would be a requirement for some 7,425 dwellings in this time frame.

Conclusions
3.1 Summarising the above findings to illustrate housing land supply figures and needs for the remaining plan period set out in the table below. Of note that should the APNW (200 unit gain) not be approved by Tynwald there would be an increase in need that could be provided by way of Strategic Reserves. This figure would leave a shortfall of some 263 units which would be accommodated through the release of sites in the first tranche. Those sites being DM001, DH002, DH057, DH010, DH003, DH008, BH015 & BH019. This statement should not be taken to presuppose these sites will be released or that additional SR’s will not be required when formally reviewed in April 2025 after the RLAS 18 update. Nor is this statement indicative of the views of Tynwald that must be sought prior to their release. Source Dwellings A Dwellings started or completed between 2011-2025 2,459 B Outstanding approvals 881 C Projected conversions and windfalls 2025-2026 53 D Development land without valid approval inc APNW (+200) 1,644 Total Supply (A + B + C + D) 5,037 Housing Policy 3 Target 5,100 Supply Shortfall (HP3-Total Supply) 63 Yield from Strategic Reserves 773 Figures have been adjusted to account for lapse rates and other concerns around delivery on a site-specific basis using the most recent site assumptions and data available.

3.2 While not part of the development plan, the OIP and its ambitions to grow the economically active population has been noted in the submitted planning statement and is an approved plan by Tynwald. To this end, the OAHN was prepared and set out the housing need to meet these goals. As this report is like those produced through the British Isles, Planning Policy have outlined those figures below in a similar manner giving context to land available and how many years supply that would represent. From this table it can be demonstrated that there is a greater than 5 year housing land supply and there would be no immediate requirement to release the strategic reserves without following the prescribed process.
Source Dwellings A Dwellings started or completed between 2021-2025 339 B Outstanding approvals 881 C Projected conversions and windfalls 2025-2036 502 D Development land without valid approval inc APNW (+200) 1,644 Total Supply (A + B + C + D) 3,366 OAHN Target 7,425 Required annual delivery 495 Supply (years) 6.8 Yield from Strategic Reserves 773 Supply including Strategic Reserves (years) 8.3 Figures have been adjusted to account for lapse rates and other concerns around delivery on a site-specific basis using the most recent site assumptions and data available.

Appendix 1: Applications without final approval Application Number Description Net Dwellings 22/01340/B The development of eight townhouses and associated car parking and landscaping 8 23/00744/B Full approval for a residential development comprising up to 153 dwellings and community uses with associated highway and pedestrian access and infrastructure, drainage, landscaping and public open space together with approval in principle for a primary school on land at Vollan Fields together with enhancement of existing habitat on land to the east of Royal Park 153 23/00958/B Conversion of existing guest house and apartment to eight apartments with alterations and extensions and new vehicular access 7

Appendix 2: Implementation of Planning Approvals granted between 1st July 2011 and 1st January 2025 (including lapsed approvals) Area Parish Units that could have been developed Units either completed or under constructio n Units with approval but not developed (incl. lapsed) Units not taken up or which have lapsed North Andreas 42 5 37 3

Ballaugh 15 7 8 3

Bride 36 3 33 29

Jurby 150 32 118 13

Lezayre 53 19 34 13

Maughold 20 4 16 10

Ramsey 717 395 322 103

Total 1033 465 568 174

% 100% 45% 55% 17% South Arbory 64 55 9 9

Castletown 183 156 27 23

Malew 488 446 42 33

Port Erin 221 188 33 23

Port St Mary 150 66 84 78

Rushen 38 26 12 8

Total 1144 937 207 174

% 100% 82% 18% 15% East Braddan 364 41 323 2

Douglas 946 406 540 281

Laxey 27 6 21 8

Lonan 26 19 7 4

Marown 69 51 18 11

Onchan 48 16 32 24

Santon 21 21 0 0

Total 1501 560 941 330

% 100% 37% 63% 22% West German 36 16 20 7

Michael 29 18 11 9

Patrick 107 48 59 51

Peel 448 415 33 19

Total 620 497 123 86

% 100% 80% 20% 14% Total

4298 2459 1839 764

% 100% 57% 43% 18%

Appendix 3: Extant development land without valid planning approval Application Number Description Size (ha) Parish Region Net Dwellings Site 2 Bride Road 1.6 Andreas North 0 Site 3 Part of Ballalough Estate 0.36 Andreas North 0 Site 1 Plots off Station Road 0.42 Ballaugh North 1 Site 2 East of Church Cottage 0.42 Ballaugh North 2 Site 1 Land south-east of the Bretney 15.9 Jurby North 5 Site 3 Kella Close 0.6 Lezayre North 11 Site 4 Ballabrooie 0.2 Lezayre North 0 Site 7 Lezayre Road on the edge of Ramsey inc Site 9 7.25 Lezayre North 108 Site 3 Premier Road 0.3 Ramsey North 5 Site 5 Thornhill 0.8 Ramsey North 13 Site 10 Poylldoeey/Ballachrink 1.94 Ramsey North 55 Site 6 Andreas Road
1.6 Ramsey North 38 RM002 Former Albert Road School Site 0.39 Ramsey North 7 RM003 Adj Collins Lane West Quay 0.03 Ramsey North 1 RM006 Former Mart Site 0.22 Ramsey North 20 RM004 Former Car Show Room site West Quay 0.23 Ramsey North 14 RM005 Plots either site of East Street 0.07 Ramsey North 1 Site 8 Land between the Crofts & Buchan School
0.4 Castletown South 12 Site 2 Crossag Farm 13 Malew South 105 LDHP 1 West of Phildraw Road - North 1.5 Malew South 0 LDHP 2 West of Phildraw Road - south 0.7 Malew South 0 LDHP 3 East of Phildraw Road 0.6 Malew South 0 Site 20 Field 411188 0.5 Port Erin South 10 Site 21 Land opposite the Cherry Orchard Hotel 0.19 Port Erin South 23 Site 22 The former Marine Biological Station
0.4 Port Erin South 46 Site 19 North of Honna Rd. & west of Surby Rd. 1.4 Rushen South 28 BH030 Land at Ballafletcher (2.32 Ha - unavailable)
2.32 Braddan East 0 BH015 & BH019 SR Woodstock and Fairway and Hilltop Nurseries 0.62 Braddan East 12 BH031 SR Camlork Farm 5.73 Braddan East 95 BM006 Land at Vicarage Road 10.7 Braddan East 49 DH001 Westmoreland Road Douglas 2.46 Douglas East 39 DH004 31-39 South Quay 0.24 Douglas East 30 DH011 Ballanard Woods 9.27 Douglas East 40 DH018 Pinehurst 0.9 Douglas East 3 DH019 South Quay 0.58 Douglas East 2 DH021 South Quay 0.09 Douglas East 7 DH022 Circular Road 0.79 Douglas East 63 DH025 Fairfield 0.28 Douglas East 9 DH037 Lower Dukes Lane 0.54 Douglas East 6 DH039 Park Road 0.84 Douglas East 27 DH042 Albany Road 0.25 Douglas East 8 DH046 Victoria Road 1.39 Douglas East 44 DM002 - RLAS site 5 Lake Road 1.1 Douglas East 41 DM003 Loch Promade 0.42 Douglas East 17 DM004 Lord Street 0.52 Douglas East 21 DM012 Summerland 1.45 Douglas East 7 DM013 Little Switzerland 2.2 Douglas East 22 DM001, DH002/057/001 SR Johnny Wattersons Lane 59.15 Douglas East 600 DH008 Ellenbrook
5.41 Douglas East 66 DH028 Stanley House 0.08 Douglas East 2 DH029 34 Castlemona Avenue 0.01 Douglas East 0 DH030 Motorcycle showroom 11 Castlemona 0.02 Douglas East 0 DH033 Vine Villa, 8 Derby Square 0.08 Douglas East 2 DH034 28-30 Derby Square 0.06 Douglas East 1 DH035 Garages Falcon Cliff Terrace Lane 0.15 Douglas East 3 DH044 Rotherwood
0.14 Douglas East 3 DH056 Demesne Road / Orry Street 0.06 Douglas East 1 GH018 - Site 2 Glen Road
0.08 Laxey East 1 GH021 North of Ramsey Road 0.29 Laxey East 3 GH022 Cliffside & End Café 0.07 Laxey East 1 GH013 Field North of Baldrine Road 2.2 Lonan East 25 GH029 Clay Head Road
0.39 Lonan East 4 MH019 Rear Of 9 And 10 Glen Darragh Gardens 0.25 Marown East 3 OH011 Land at Ballachrink 9.9 Onchan East 12 OH014 Far End 0.62 Onchan East 7 OH016 Former Follies Cabaret Restaurant 0.45 Onchan East 5 OH017 RLAS Site 6 West of Summerhill 2.78 Onchan East 31 OH018 Governor's Road
0.08 Onchan East 1 Site 7 Governor's Road 0.1 Onchan East 0 Site 1 Balladoyne, St. John's 1.8 St Johns West 3 Site 2 Plot off Beachfield Road, Kirk Michael 0.5 Kirk Michael West 5 Site 3 North west of Cooil Avenue 0.9 Kirk Michael West 6 Site 4 East of Main Road 6.5 Kirk Michael West 100 Site 4 South of the A24 0.92 Patrick West 10 Site 3 East of Glenfaba Road 8.33 Peel West 102 Site 12 West of Ballaquane Road 1.56 Peel West 37 Site 14 South of Ramsey Road 0.38 Peel West 10 Site 15 East of Oak Road 0.6 Peel West 14 Site 19 Tynwald Road 0.13 Peel West 3

Total

197.7

2108

Appendix 4: Draft Area Plan for the North and West Land Proposals Site Code Description Size (ha) Parish Region Net Dwellings RR007 Fields 134079 and 131077, Mount Pleasant 1.62 Ramsey North 38 RR009 Fields 134278, 134279,

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